I’m curious if readers would blindly follow a “mandatory” mass evacuation order?
A recent train derailment in East Tennessee resulted in a mass evacuation that the public was told could last from 24-48 hours. I chose to stay. Using my own experience, as well as knowledge of the hazard, I obtained a second opinion of a subject matter expert I trusted and decided against evacuating my location. Some of my neighbors made similar decisions, though many did leave.
I started to think about the factors behind my decision and wondered what others would do in similar conditions. Here are some of the questions that came to my mind.
Would you take the evacuation order at face value and leave without any questioning?
If you had the inside scoop from a subject matter expert who had previous experience with the same type of hazard would you stay or leave based on what they advised you?
If you thought it was politically driven more to cover a politician’s career (e.g. CYA) than address real public safety issues, would you stay or leave? It’s easy to say everyone should evacuate out of harms way but there are a lot of factors that need to be in place to carry it out well.
Do you have to have trust in the source in order to follow the order? For example do you have to believe the hazard (if airborne) is not at your location yet prior to leaving? What if shelter-in-place might be a better option?
If you yourself were trained in the hazard would you trust your decision over someone else?
What if your neighbors looked to you knowing you have subject matter expertise? Would you advise them to follow the order or stay behind? Would you then be responsible for their safety if conditions changed?
I have the benefit of years of experience and the Readers will have to trust that I understand all the nuances of evacuation and shelter-in-place as a protective action strategy. I’ve also helped clients develop policy, procedures, and standard operating guidance about evacuations. I hope to keep this conversation more on the triggers and resources and critical thinking skills you would use to decide when or when not to follow a mandatory evacuation order.
Mass evacuation laws vary from state to state and seem to be more refined in those areas where natural disasters (fires and hurricanes) occur with some regularity. People living in those areas gain experience and/or biases with historical events which probably influences their own decision. Mass evacuation statutes typically give the governor the authority to declare a state of emergency/disaster and order a mandatory mass evacuation. Many laws will indicate a delegation of that same authority to elected officials at lower levels of government.
Terminology in those laws include “compel” to mean to use force or coercion to bring about the desired result of evacuation. Using coercion to get me to act against my free choice rubs me the wrong way. I think sets a dangerous precedent of government acting too paternalistic. Is it really reasonable to force people to leave their homes? My parents often told me what was best for me as a young child. As I grew older I often had a choice in the matter. Of course my decisions had consequences. I’m not convinced anymore that when politicians make a choice, there are consequences.
Coercion tactics such as being told to write your social security number on your arm with an indelible marker to make body identification “easier”; or knocking on doors wearing an SCBA only to be seen wandering up the street later yucking it up without wearing a mask don’t come off as professional or credible. Apparently the strength of data, science, or reasonableness regarding the need to evacuate is not strong enough if these cheap tricks are deemed appropriate.
The recent surge in shark attacks along the eastern seaboard bring up a similar challenge of deciding if there should be a precautionary evacuation of going in the water. If you don’t get in the water you won’t be bitten by a shark — that’s a fact. What’s interesting is that evacuating the water as a public safety decision is diametrically opposite of supporting the tourism industry along coastal vacation communities. As a result we see public officials pulling out the “probability” science of shark attacks as supporting the decision not to restrict going into the water.
The point I’m trying to make is that I am not comfortable letting government officials be responsible for making evacuation decisions on my behalf. I’ve used the word trust more than once in this post and I think a great deal boils down to if I trust where the message is coming from. Evacuation is a great CYA tool for politicians but I don’t think they always have my best interests at heart. I also believe reasonable people with key information can make good decisions on their own.
Help me understand what factors you think would weigh in on your decision to evacuate or if being told to do so is sufficient for you.
First questions are do I have somewhere to evacuate to and can I get there. Then the question of whether I can bring the cat. In the past they have waited until our roads were under water before deciding we should evacuate, at which point shelter in place remained the only ‘option’. When one lives in a trailer this is more than an academic question; simply a recognition that people with means will be already claiming any hotel spaces within easy driving distance and as long as the set aside toilet flushing water holds out and the roof stays attached there are plenty of canned goods and one’s own bed (more important as time goes by than you youngsters would think).
I think you’re making very pragmatic decisions, even though you like I was could technically be in violation of a “mandatory” evacuation order. You develop a solution unique for your situation which is missing when mass evacuation decisions are made.
Well, when Sandy was forming we got an “if you have somewhere to evacuate to this would be a good time to go” phone call, but unless one had the means to stay in a hotel well inland for a couple weeks, or relatives well inland who could put one up for a couple weeks, there was really no suggestion that if one lived in this area one should head here or there and shelter would be provided. Call them to ask and they REFUSED to use the word mandatory saying they were leaving it to our best judgement: basically if one had money and could it was a good idea, but they were not about to announce the opening of any shelter.
Other consideration s:
living in tsunami risk area s where no route of escape is possible.
(Pacific nw)
where evacuation by car jams up (katrina, houston)
where warning s come so frequently that people get tired of hearing them
(Tornado countty)
I would agree Marc that blanket “mass evacuation”orders really are an easy out decision for elected officials and make a great sound bite for a media briefing but ignore the tough public safety issues.
Great article and questions Jan! I often look at the decisions to recommend or mandate evacuation with a magnifying glass but, seldom considered what I would do personally. I think not following federal recommendations in Katrina led to many deaths, illnesses, etc. but, have seen where it was not necessary to mandate as well.
I think if I had the knowledge on a HazMat situation I would make my own decision, as I have a good deal of knowledge on many products.
I also live near a large natural dam and have seen others damaged and even fail. I am not sure what I would do if told to leave in the case of my nearby dam having issues. Yet, I feel at a minimum, a recommended evacuation should have been issued recently when another dam was identified as weakening. The county pushed numerous resources in, did some work, over 4 days, and corrected the situation without ordering or recommending evac.
At the same time, based on my local EOP, and its simplicity, and having sat through a dam TTX with the county, I wonder what exactly are the triggers for such an order or recommendation, as it was obvious there were none. I of course wrote this up and questioned the lacking plans but, haven’t received anything back.
If I lived in an area with no/very limited egress routes which have a high risk of a given event, I think I would except an order but, I would, as I always do, conduct my own analysis. When I look at the first few tracks of Sandy, where Northern VA was targeted but, it bounced to NJ where Christy had ordered evacuation, I wonder how good anyone’s information is. I think he made a great decision and probably saved lives while making a Not so popular decision.
I was in Staten Island shortly after reviewing a new SAR course and saw and heard about the damages, those killed, those lost, etc. and hope that I would have left any of those areas. BUT, I would know my own vulnerability: low ground, regular flooding, survivability of my home, etc. Many don’t have enough knowledge and only look to public safety and politicians.
I think anytime there is an emergency evacuation ordered, you should get out. They don’t post warnings unless a serious situation is anticipated. Once you get to a safe place, you can always re- examine the situation and return when you feel the danger has passed. If you ignore the warning, and you are wrong about the severity of the impact….you may be dead – there’s no second chance then. AND you risk the lives of others, when disaster responders now need to come rescue you in a hostile environment.
Of course I would rather stay in my own home, as everything I need is there…but if you”re dead that really doesn’t matter. I was at Katrina, and so many people could not or did not evacuate for personal reasons…which resulted in a much greater fatality and injury rate. Some just simply did not have the means to evacuate, No car, no money, no where to go, had pets that they couldn’t bring …..so they stayed. And that did not work out well for many.
My lesson learned was that In the future, we need to have cages available for pets – that would have helped to get some people out of New Orleans who refused to leave because they could not take their pet. If they could have acquired a number of pet cages, they could have attached a trailer to a bus to hold the cages (and pets) , and get people who did not have the means (the elderly and poor) to evacuate on the bus heading north to a Western Shelter. However, in New Orleans the city buses were parked in an area that flooded early, leaving them incapacitated. Had they used the buses earlier to evacuate people and pets from New Orleans to the Western Shelter north of New Orleans, they would have saved lives, AND their buses. But this was not done prior to impact.
When I flew in for disaster medical assistance, as far as I could see in any direction, there was nothing standing. It was truly the biggest disaster I had even seen – World Trade Center was bad, but Katrina was so much worse.
So my vote is to accept the information broadcasted on your local warning channel. And if it was a false alarm, you can always go home. If you stay and disregard warnings, you risk the lives of others who now need to come rescue you….but I think the emergency planners also need to recognize the reasons WHY people refused to leave the area (elderly and impoverished had no money to leave,) others refused to leave because they couldn’t take their pet.. There needs to be contingency plan so people will be agreeable to evacuate.. Simply driving a bus with a trailer filled with cages behind it and broadcasting as you drive through town that people and pets can get on the bus and be taken to a safe place where food, water, and beds will be available would have saved a lot of money and lives.,
Belinda: The pet evacuation problem is currently being discusssed in a number of local EOC planning meetings here in Florida…it is a REAL problem! So I ask you, based on your ideas proposed here, and I hope you have a real solution: “Simply driving a bus with a trailer filled with cages behind it and broadcasting as you drive through town that people and pets can get on the bus and be taken to a safe place where food, water, and beds will be available”
Where? Where do the people shelter that provides and accepts their pets? Great idea for moving them – but WHERE? Our shelters DO NOT allow pets….with the exception of qualified service animals. WHERE do the people go with their pets?
I think my previous post disappeared. The emergency manager needs to acquire pet cages and a bus that can haul a trailer. That’s an expense that would need to be planned for as the budget is always tight! There would also be the cost of installing hitches on the city bus.There is a facility, I believe in Louisiana that is an inflatable house – I toured it when I was at Katrina. . It has air conditioning, beds, kitchen, etc…even a morgue. Far enough away to be out of danger.
I have “attended” most of the major disasters in the US, and other incidents for many years now, and I am repeatedly amazed at how many people disregard the warning that might have saved their life. My opinion is that you follow instructions, and re-evaluate later from a safe place.
I would move my family out as soon as I saw a credible threat present or imminent. They can be with relatives 40 miles way in about an hour.
I am more inclined to make an informed decision if it is something that I am a subject matter expert in. That being said even if I was an expert I would have to be relatively certain that there were not other circumstances that I was not aware of. Typically not all of the available information is publicly available during an incident. If I had an in and was aware of the situation from an inside perspective then I might be more willing to make my own choice. But keeping that choice to myself and keeping as low of a profile as possible to avoid the issues you cite with neighbors following my lead. I may know what I am doing and the protective steps I need to take, but chances are the neighbors would not.
It is my opinion that it is usually best to follow directions, but I can certainly see that there are cases where it may be best to sit tight. That being said I would need to make sure that I could truly be self sufficient as I would not put anyone else at risk based on my decision to stay.
There are a lot of factors that go into deciding when and if to evacuate. Even though I may have a lot of knowledge. I don’t think I would second guess why authorities called the evacuation. No matter what my level of expertise, if I’m not directly connected to the information flow coming out of incident command, there is a much higher probability I am not privy to the most up to date facts including variables pertinent to additional risks and secondary hazards. I’m not willing to risk my family or neighborhood.
I also am not privy to all details regarding my neighbors’ situations including are there medical conditions, disabilities, or other factors that add greater risk to staying. Example: I have Relapse-Remitt Multiple Sclerosis, an unstable disability where my condition and ability to function independently can vary greatly. If I’m out of remission and am mobility impaired enough to warrant use of my electric wheelchair, than I’m scrambling to find a resource to get it and me out because I do not have a vehicle capable of transporting that wheelchair due to its size, weight and configuration. That takes lead time and if I second guess, I risk closing my options and window of opportunity.
Finally, like you, my neighbors are also aware of my expertise. The issue of “trust” has been raised. What message does it convey to our neighbors and community if those of us who are emergency managment and preparedness “subject matter experts” do not “walk the talk” and model the behaviors we teach? If we second guess and act counter to official instructions, do we not contribute to weakening public trust of emergency messages? What happens the next time when conditions and/or outcomes are not so benign? I don’t ever want to even entertain the question/idea as to whether my decisions somehow rocked trust and empowered someone else to ignore instructions to their peril or harm. I don’t know how I could shoulder my own emotions of devastation and guilt were I to learn my actions were a proximal cause to someone’s death or injury. The way I look at it, I would rather invoke our family response plan, follow instructions to evacuate, possibly needlessly, and count it as a family emergency drill than take one the risk or responsibility of ignoring emergency instruction messages.
I like your comment that at the very least you could count it as a drill. You do raise another point when you spoke to your own mobility conditions. I see three main groups within a large “mass” evacuation perimeter. The first group is those with the means to self evacuate family members and pets. The second group would evacuate but they are challenged in some manner, be it mobility, home medical equipment, latch key children or other issues. The last group would be those who don’t plan on evacuating anyway. I think Emergency Managers really need to focus on developing plans for the second group and not leave the operational component of evacuating up to the individuals. Asking people who can leave to leave is easy, ensuring the safety of those who want to but can’t on their own is much harder.
One of the other evacuation issues is that we never really practice these during full scale exercises to understand how complicated and lengthy a safe evac looks. We have a number of plans which, unless caused to implement, are conjecture until we press to test.
I think you have hit the nail on the head: planners don’t stop to think about what will go into implementing their plans and blithely assume the citizenry will fall in without any consideration given to whether said citizenry have the means to implement the plan. I keep my gas tank full and have canned goods and water, but without a destination there is no sense my getting out on the road and just blindly driving (bypassing completely the fact that I cannot drive at night).
without reading everyone else’s comments, one of the aspects came to the forefront for me, as a Ground Search & Rescue Team Leader instructor, and Incident Commander.
Your personal analysis of the risk management for yourself does impact those around you, if those individuals follow you or view as a ‘leader’. Are you comfortable making such a decision for your neighbours? You may argue you are not accountable to their decision making, but the reality is, if your educated choices are seen by others as valuable, they very well may accept your choice as their own based on the trust relationship.
What impact does this have on the overall emergency response? Should the ‘shit hit the fan’ are you now a liability and quite frankly diverting resources to take care of you and others right when they have the least amount of time to deal with that? The evacuations are pre-emptive for a reason, keeping the big picture in mind. To second guess those decisions for personal reasons is at best foolish, and even worse disrespectful and dangerous to the responder’s lives.
Offering that viewpoint from the responder’s perspective.
Appreciate your comments Robert. In my particular case neighbors made decisions independently of mine. My question to readers is what would they do if the neighbors did seek advise. If someone had asked me in this case I would say if they are uncomfortable in any manner, they should probably best leave.
I understand your perspective as I was in the role for decades as well and understand the challenges brought on by those who did not leave when originally asked. On the other hand I have to admit I never inquired as to what weighed into their decision not to leave. I think sometimes we (response community) might be too quick to judge the decision making of others.
I may have made a different decision if the request had been better delivered. A play acting fire fighter does not impress me in the least.
It is my experience in local emergency evacuation situations that those people who say: “I am not comfortable letting government officials be responsible for making evacuation decisions on my behalf” are the same people that expect their local rescue responders to put themselves in harm’s way to rescue them – when they could have evacuated, don’t, and then find themselves in the middle of a life threatening hazardous situation! I say: “Go while the going is good…….! Better to get out, be safe, and come back – than to stay and be washed away!” We are a coastal community – prone to hurricanes – although, we have escaped many in recent years……We know it is not IF, but WHEN? AK Scofield, CEM